Bristol Myers Squibb Bets on Cobenfy’s Potential in Alzheimer’s Market, Eyeing Billions in Revenue

Bristol Myers Squibb anticipates substantial revenue from its newly approved schizophrenia treatment, Cobenfy, which it sees as a potential game-changer in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. With a market of nearly 6 million Alzheimer's patients in the U.S., including around half with psychosis, the company estimates that Cobenfy could tap into a multibillion-dollar market, particularly in the realm of Alzheimer's-related psychosis, agitation, and cognition, as well as bipolar disorder and autism.

Alzheimer's is the biggest market for new schizophrenia drug

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) is optimistic about the financial prospects of its recently approved schizophrenia treatment, Cobenfy, as it envisions substantial revenue potential in the market for Alzheimer's disease. The company, through its Chief Financial Officer (CFO) David Elkins, expressed its belief in the massive market size for Alzheimer's, stating that around half of the 6 million Alzheimer's patients in the U.S. experience psychosis. This positions Cobenfy as a potential solution for a significant portion of this patient population.

Cobenfy's potential extends beyond Alzheimer's-related psychosis. BMS sees multibillion-dollar potential in treating Alzheimer's-related agitation and cognition, as well as in addressing bipolar disorder and autism. The company's Chief Commercialization Officer, Adam Lenkowsky, emphasized the possibility of Cobenfy being the first drug specifically approved for Alzheimer's-related psychosis, in contrast to the current use of atypical antipsychotics, which are associated with an increased risk of death.

Sales Projections and Development Timeline

JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott predicts that Cobenfy sales could reach approximately $5 billion by 2030, with peak sales potential in the $10 billion range across its various treatment applications. This revenue boost will be crucial for BMS as it seeks to mitigate the potential loss of revenue from its top-selling treatments, which are approaching patent expiration.

Excitingly, BMS has revealed plans to release initial late-stage trial data for Cobenfy's use in treating Alzheimer's-related psychosis later this year, ahead of previous expectations. Furthermore, the company anticipates commencing phase three trials in 2025 for Alzheimer's agitation, Alzheimer's cognition, and bipolar disorder, with studies in autism set to begin in 2026. This aggressive development timeline underscores BMS's commitment to advancing Cobenfy in multiple therapeutic areas.

Potential Impact on Patients and Healthcare System

As the focus on treating the psychological and cognitive symptoms of Alzheimer's disease expands, BMS's Elkins highlights the potential impact of Cobenfy on patients and the healthcare system. He emphasizes that by addressing symptoms such as psychosis and agitation, Cobenfy could lead to significant improvements in patients' overall cognition and wellbeing. This, in turn, could have a profound effect on caregivers and the healthcare system as a whole, offering a more comprehensive approach to managing the complexities of Alzheimer's disease.

The development of Cobenfy marks a significant milestone for both BMS and the field of neurology. The drug's historical roots can be traced back to the 1990s when Eli Lilly initially tested a component of Cobenfy, xanomeline, for cognitive decline. Although the development was halted due to severe side effects, the innovative spirit of Bristol Myers Squibb's acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics for $14 billion has breathed new life into this potential treatment.

Market Context and Competition

While several breakthrough treatments for Alzheimer's disease, such as Biogen and Eisai's Leqembi and Eli Lilly's Kisunla, have recently entered the market, BMS believes that Cobenfy addresses a critical gap in the treatment landscape. As patients progress through the stages of Alzheimer's, they often experience debilitating symptoms such as psychosis and agitation, which Cobenfy is designed to alleviate.