California House Race Faces Improbable Tie, Potential 3-Way Showdown in November

A California House race faces an improbable tie for second place, possibly leading to a third candidate on the November ballot.

After more than 180,000 votes were cast in a U.S. House race in California, a historic tie for the second place has emerged, leading to a mathematically improbable result.

If the current numbers hold, this would mark the first time in a House race in California that the state's "top two" election system would have to accommodate a third candidate on the November ballot.

Highly Democratic District

The primary election took place in the heavily Democratic 16th District south of San Francisco, a seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo. Eleven candidates were on the ballot under California rules, where all candidates appear on the same primary ballot, but only the top two advance to the general election, regardless of political party.

The first spot was secured by former San Jose mayor Sam Liccardo, a Democrat. However, the two other Democrats, state Assembly member Evan Low and Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian, were deadlocked for the second spot with 30,249 votes each, according to unofficial results.

Official Certification

Secretary of State Shirley Weber, responsible for overseeing elections, has until April 12 to certify the results, which could potentially lead to three Democrats vying for the November ballot.

The potential three-way contest in November will not impact the control of the narrowly divided House, as it will be decided in swing districts being contested by Democrats and Republicans across the country.

Protracted Vote Counting

This outcome also serves as a reminder of the state's slow vote counting process, with the result remaining uncertain weeks after the election. The high cost of a recount, likely to exceed $300,000, makes it improbable for any of the campaigns to request one.

If the race proceeds to November as a three-way contest, it would lead to a reshuffling of the dynamics, effectively serving as a "total reset," according to Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc.