EU's Enlargement Plans Gain Momentum From Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

EU's Enlargement Plans in the Wake of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Davos, SWITZERLAND — The political landscape in the European Union is experiencing a shift as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reignited the union's plans for expansion, particularly in the strategically crucial Western Balkans. The EU's plans for enlargement in the Western Balkans, which comprises Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Serbia, have gained fresh impetus, but uncertainties persist regarding the readiness and willingness of the neighboring region to take the necessary steps to join the union.

Challenges and Progress in Western Balkans' Accession to the EU

The Western Balkans, despite having applied for and been granted candidate or potential candidate member status over the past two decades, have made slow progress in their accession to the EU. The fall of the socialist federation of Yugoslavia in 1992 marked the beginning of this process. According to Miroslav Lajčák, EU Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue and Western Balkans, the European Union appears more prepared for the Balkans' accession than the Balkans are for the EU.

Stringent Accession Process

The accession process is a stringent and often protracted endeavor, involving multiple rounds of negotiations and reforms to ensure that a candidate state aligns with the EU's judicial, administrative, and economic standards. Lajčák mentioned that in the past, countries in the Western Balkans hesitated to fully engage in such reforms because they did not believe in a genuine European future or that they could realistically meet the requirements. However, the eruption of war on Europe's doorstep in February 2022 brought about significant changes.

Impact of Recent Developments

Ukraine, neighboring Moldova, and shortly after, nearby Georgia all applied for EU candidate status within days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. By late 2023, the EU had initiated accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and granted candidate status to Georgia, injecting fresh momentum into the European project and signaling renewed hope for other potential members. According to Lajčák, the recent developments in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia have sparked a newfound energy and commitment, which had waned in the Balkans.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia being outside the Western Balkans, Lajčák highlighted that progress in these countries should propel the region forward in its accession talks. While negotiations are ongoing in every country except Kosovo, a potential candidate member, Lajčák cautioned that this openness may not persist indefinitely, stating, "The train is here and the train will leave the station. If they don't board, they will miss a huge historic opportunity."

EU's Assertiveness and Foreign Policy Alignment

The EU's accelerated enlargement is occurring against the backdrop of the bloc's efforts to bolster its assertiveness following Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the fracturing of the U.S.-led world order. Lajčák noted that this has transformed the atmosphere in Brussels to become more politically charged. The increased political emphasis has made foreign policy alignment more critical than ever to the accession process, considering the EU's unity has already been challenged by the intransigence of existing member Hungary, posing a potential hurdle for certain aspiring members.

Serbia's Stance and Economic Considerations

Serbia, the largest country in the region, has publicly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine but has resisted imposing sanctions on the country. Furthermore, Belgrade has often clashed with Western allies on foreign policy issues and maintains close ties with Russia and China. Despite this, Lajčák stressed that neither country could rival Brussels in terms of investment and trade offerings, asserting, "The credible enlargement process is the best answer to any third-party's interference. It would be economically insane for European countries to look elsewhere."