Experts Predict Extremely Active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season with Above-Average Landfall Probability

As we approach the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, experts have issued a forecast that suggests an unprecedented level of activity in the months ahead. The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has released a comprehensive report indicating a significant increase in the likelihood of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

The forecast for the 2024 season indicates a substantial rise in activity compared to the 1991-2020 average. Researchers are predicting a staggering 23 named storms and 115 named storm days. This is a considerable increase when compared to previous years, which saw an average of 14.4 storm days and 69.4 named storm days. The Atlantic hurricane season typically spans from June 1 to November 30, with heightened activity expected between mid-August and mid-October, peaking in mid-September, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Factors Contributing to the Outlook

The projection of heightened activity is attributed to warm sea surface temperatures and a warm tropical Atlantic, both of which are further intensified by the arrival of La Niña conditions during the summer. These conditions are expected to decrease vertical wind shear and create more favorable circumstances for the development of hurricanes. The researchers have emphasized that the probability of major hurricane landfall in the United States and the Caribbean is estimated to be well above the long-term average, with certain areas experiencing a significant increase of up to 20%.

Probability of Landfall

Researchers have outlined the probability of a category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline, indicating a 62% chance, which is notably higher than the average prediction of 43%. Along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the likelihood of landfall has jumped to 34% from the previous 21%. The Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle are also anticipated to experience an increase in the probability of landfall, with a forecasted 42% chance, up from an average of 27% in previous years.

The seasonal forecast predictions are rooted in statistical and dynamical models, although the researchers have cautioned that these models may not be infallible in certain years. It is essential to consider that this year's hurricane season follows 2023, which was globally the warmest year on record, and consequently had higher-than-average water temperatures, culminating in an increased frequency of hurricanes.