Far Right AfD Gains Unprecedented Votes in East German State Elections, Challenging Scholz's Coalition

Germany is experiencing a significant political shift as the far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), is predicted to secure the highest number of votes in the state election for the first time since the Nazi era. This development poses a substantial challenge to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ruling centre-left coalition.

Unexpected Success for the AfD

Projections from public broadcasters, ARD and ZDF, based on exit polls, indicate that the AfD has emerged as the leading party in the east German state of Thuringia, garnering approximately 31-33% of the vote. The Christian Democratic Party, Germany's second-largest party, trailed in second place with 24.5% of the votes in Thuringia. Chancellor Scholz's Social Democratic Party appears to have crossed the 5% threshold needed to secure a seat in the state parliament.

AfD's Growth in Saxony

In Saxony, another east German state with a history of Communist influence, the AfD has secured 30-31% of the vote, closely contesting with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which received 31.5-32% of the vote, according to projection polls. Despite the other parties' refusal to form coalitions with the AfD, its stronghold in Thuringia signifies a monumental achievement for a party that was founded only a decade ago in 2013.

Political Impact

The election results come as a setback for Chancellor Scholz, who is set to seek re-election in 12 months. With his party trailing behind a resurgent AfD, the projections pose a significant challenge for the Chancellor's political future.

The surge in support for the AfD, despite its leaders being embroiled in controversies and its association with extremist ideologies, can be attributed to the party's appeal, particularly among younger voters. Originally initiated as a movement against the euro currency, the AfD has shifted its focus towards Islam and immigration, gaining traction at both local and national levels, particularly in former East Germany with strong Soviet ties.

Challenges for Scholz's Coalition

The AfD's rise can be attributed to the growing discontent with Scholz's governing coalition, which comprises the Social Democrats, Greens, and Free Democrats. The coalition has faced challenges in dealing with Russia's war with Ukraine, slow economic growth, the transition to green energy, and renewed debates about migration, particularly in light of a recent terror attack. This has resulted in a drop in support for the ruling parties, which the AfD has capitalized upon.

The emergence of the AfD as a major political force has significantly weakened Germany's mainstream political parties and has the potential to disrupt the current political landscape. If the AfD secures a significant number of seats in either Thuringia or Saxony, it will be positioned to obstruct votes requiring a two-thirds majority, potentially challenging the status quo in the upcoming general elections.

AfD's Growing Influence

On a national level, the AfD is currently polling as the country's second-largest party with 18%, surpassing Chancellor Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SDP). With 12 months until the next elections, the AfD has gained considerable ground and is poised to continue expanding its influence across the country in pursuit of real power.

As the AfD consolidates its position, the results of the state elections serve as a rallying cry for those who oppose the far-right's growing influence in Germany.