Far-Right National Rally Leads in French Legislative Elections, Creating Political Uncertainty

French voters have propelled the far-right National Rally to a strong lead in the first-round legislative elections. According to polling projections, the National Rally stands a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, with an estimated one-third of the first-round vote, nearly double their 18% in the first round in 2022.

The strong lead of the National Rally has plunged the country into political uncertainty. French President Emmanuel Macron, who called the surprise elections just three weeks ago, urged voters to rally against the far right. However, the results indicate a significant surge in support for the far-right party.

Impact on France and Europe

The upcoming second round of elections on July 7 could have wide-ranging implications. It could impact European financial markets, Western support for Ukraine, and the management of France’s nuclear arsenal and global military force. The outcome of these elections will not only shape the future of France but also potentially influence the broader European political landscape.

Centrist Bloc Collapse and Macron's Gamble

Support for President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc collapsed, and parties are competing for a total of 577 seats in the National Assembly. Macron's decision to call the snap election, following his party's defeat in the June’s European parliamentary elections, was widely seen as an attempt to steer voters away from the political extremes. However, the gamble backfired after a lightning-fast, three-week campaign failed to turn the tide.

Scenarios for Future Governance

With the possibility of a hung Parliament and adversaries from opposing parties populating it, there is a potential for political paralysis and damaging inaction. The composition of the government could lead to a tumultuous process, with the risk of parties jockeying for power and leaving France without a prime minister. The second round of voting remains difficult to predict, and a surprise majority could still emerge, significantly altering the political landscape.

The Rise of the Far-Right National Rally

The National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella, has seen a surge in support, aligning with pre-election polls that indicated a rise in popularity for the far right. Bardella, a loyal protégé of Marine Le Pen, the party's leader, has emphasized anti-immigration and policies geared towards benefiting the working class. The National Rally has evolved from its extreme ethnocentric roots but continues to draw criticism for expressions of racism, antisemitism, and homophobia within its support base.

Concerns and Fears for the Future

Some political figures, such as Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris, have voiced concerns about the rise of the far right, highlighting the risks it poses for democracy, minorities, and women. With the memory of France's collaboration with the Nazis during World War II, there is heightened sensitivity to the potential impact of far-right influence on the country's future.