Forecast Models Predict Next Tropical Storm to Form in Western Caribbean, Heading Toward Florida

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is set to conclude on November 30. However, as the end approaches, the Caribbean is showing signs of a potential tropical system in the western region. The National Hurricane Center has issued a forecast indicating a 90% chance of formation within the next two days over the western Caribbean.

Next tropical weather threat could form in Caribbean

In light of the high confidence level in the developing weather system, hurricane hunters departed from Biloxi, Mississippi, at 12 p.m. ET Wednesday, heading towards the area for further investigation. Their mission is to analyze the strength and structure of the potential tropical system. Another flight is planned for Thursday morning to provide additional monitoring and insights.

As this low-pressure system continues to progress in the western Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center has identified favorable conditions for the formation of a tropical system.

What the Forecast Models Indicate

Forecast models play a pivotal role in predicting the potential trajectory and development of tropical systems. These models analyze current environmental factors along with historical data to create "spaghetti plots," which depict a range of possible paths for the developing system. Each model employs distinct computations, leading to a consensus forecast track derived from the various models.

The strength of the tropical system is assessed based on factors such as favorable environmental conditions over warm waters, low wind shear, and the absence of intercepting fronts. Additionally, the duration for which the system remains in these favorable conditions influences its overall strength.

The forecast models predict that regardless of its strength, the system is likely to linger in the western Caribbean until the weekend before shifting northward into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

As the system progresses into the Gulf, the forecast models suggest a right-handed turn towards Florida by late next week. If the system attains tropical storm strength, it will be named Sara.