Israel-Hamas Cease-fire Agreement Faces Deep Skepticism Amid Control and Survival Concerns

As the discussions for a cease-fire agreement between Hamas and the Israeli government continue, there are deep reservations among analysts regarding the likelihood of both parties implementing a deal that extends beyond a temporary truce.

The Three-Phase Agreement Proposal

Israel has proposed a three-phase agreement, with the backing of the United States and some Arab countries, that could potentially lead to the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Additionally, the agreement aims for the return of all remaining hostages captured in the October 7 attack and a comprehensive reconstruction plan for the Gaza territory.

The Hurdles to Implementation

However, achieving these objectives seems challenging as the parties have yet to even commence negotiations, let alone agree on the terms and duration of the cease-fire. The main point of contention is not merely the duration of the cease-fire or the timing of its implementation, but rather the acceptance by Israel of a long-term truce while Hamas retains considerable control.

The Fundamental Disagreement

For Israel to entertain Hamas's demands for a permanent cease-fire from the outset, it would have to acknowledge the ongoing presence and influence of Hamas in the territory's future – a compromise that Israel's government is unwilling to make. Conversely, Hamas insists on guarantees of a permanent cease-fire, signaling that it will not consider a temporary truce without the assurance of its survival, even at the cost of more Palestinian lives, for fear that Israel may resume hostilities once its hostages are returned.