Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump by 5 Points in Latest NBC News Poll, Shifts in Key Voter Blocs

The Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is currently leading over Republican contender Donald Trump by 5 percentage points among registered voters, according to a new national NBC News poll. The poll signifies a shift in voter preference compared to the previous survey conducted in July when President Joe Biden was still a part of the 2024 presidential race. In the earlier poll, Trump held a 2-point advantage over Biden, with 45% to 43%. However, the recent findings indicate a notable change in key voter demographics since Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 election.

Shifts in Voter Demographics

The most significant transformation in voter behavior is observed among young voters aged 18 to 34, who were nearly evenly split between Biden and Trump in July. In the latest poll, Harris has gained a substantial 23-point lead among this demographic, securing 57% of the vote compared to Trump's 34%. Furthermore, the support for the Democratic ticket among Black voters has surged, with Biden initially holding a 57-point advantage in July, now transforming into a remarkable 78-point lead for Harris in the newest survey.

Moreover, Harris has improved her standing with female voters, now commanding a 21-point lead, surpassing Biden's eleven-point edge in the previous poll. However, certain key voting blocs, such as Latino voters, seniors, and independents, display relative stability since Biden's exit from the 2024 race. In the July poll, Latino voters expressed support for Biden with a 54%-38% margin, and in the current survey, Harris maintains a similar 54%-35% lead over Trump. Biden had a 9-point advantage among independents, with many respondents undecided between Biden and Trump. The current margins reflect a comparable scenario for Harris and Trump, with Harris leading 43% to 35%, resulting in an 8-point gap.

Seniors' Voting Pattern

Among seniors, the voting pattern remains consistent, as demonstrated in the previous July poll. Trump's support among seniors stood at 48%, while Biden secured 47%. The September poll reflects a similar scenario, with Trump holding 48% support among seniors and Harris trailing closely with 47%.

Polling Methodology

The national NBC News poll was conducted between September 13-17, reaching out to 1,000 registered voters. Notably, 870 of the respondents were contacted via cellphone, emphasizing the poll's approach to gathering data from a diverse demographic. The poll boasts an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with larger margins of error for specific subgroups.