Latest CNBC Survey Finds Americans’ Improved Economic Outlook Boosts Biden’s Support

All-America Economic Survey, Americans' sentiments about the economy have experienced a modest improvement. This has resulted in President Biden catching up with Donald Trump in a direct competition. However, Donald Trump maintains a substantial lead on key economic issues, including inflation, taxes, and immigration, which voters deem crucial in this election.

Poll Results

The survey, which encompassed 1,001 Americans nationwide, revealed that 46% of voters favor Trump, while 45% lean towards Biden in a head-to-head matchup, with 10% remaining undecided. This marks a change from the December poll where Trump held a 48-42 lead over Biden. Both polls carried a margin of error of +/-3.1%. It's worth noting that Biden witnessed enhanced support among Democrats, independents, and individuals with a college degree or higher, compared to the previous quarter. In contrast, Trump's advantage grew among individuals with less than a high school education, while maintaining his substantial leads among whites, rural voters, and men. However, he did experience a decline in support from those with some college education.

Approval Ratings

Biden's overall approval rating rose to 39% from 35% in December, with his disapproval declining to 56% from 59%. Specifically in the economic realm, his approval numbers rose to 37% from 33%, while disapproval dropped to 58% from 62%. Jay Campbell from Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey, noted that "That 39% is an objectively bad approval number for a candidate going into reelection, but it also could be enough this time." Meanwhile, Micah Roberts, partner with Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster, indicated that "We're in new territory with two very unpopular candidates who people know very well. There's not much that you're going to learn new about either one of these guys. And so maybe it's enough. It's enough to keep it tight. That's for sure."

Approval on Foreign Policy and Immigration

Despite the improvements in economic approval, the President's rating on foreign policy remains deeply negative, with just 30% approving compared to 63% who disapprove. Similarly, only 29% approve of his handling of immigration and border security, while 64% disapprove. Notably, more than 90% of Republicans and 60% of independents disapprove of his handling of both foreign policy and immigration. Surprisingly, 30% of Democrats also express disapproval, signifying substantial opposition from within the President's own party. Furthermore, younger Democrats are evenly split on the President's handling of foreign policy.

Economic Outlook

While the aforementioned issues appear to impact the President's approval, there is a silver lining in the form of improved overall views on the economy. The survey indicates that 25% of respondents view the economy as excellent or good, up from 19% in December, while 75% describe it as just fair or poor, down from 80%. Additionally, more positive data includes declining inflation, favorable growth figures, and low unemployment rates. Nonetheless, Americans' optimism about the economy remains only half of what it was before the onset of the pandemic.

Public Sentiment and Expectations

Furthermore, Americans' expectations for gains in their home prices have reached a two-year high, and optimism about the stock market is at its highest in three years. Additionally, the 40% of respondents anticipating a recession represents the lowest figure since 2000. Similarly, anticipated wage gains are in line with the average, and confidence in job retention stands at 82%. Despite these positive indicators, a plurality of Americans, accounting for 39%, believe they would be better off financially if former President Trump were reelected, compared to 23% who express the same sentiment about Biden. This belief is primarily driven by Republicans, with 79% strongly believing that their financial situation hinges on Trump's reelection.

Economic Competency and Voter Perception

When it comes to economic competence, Trump holds a commanding lead among voters. Survey respondents indicated that inflation occupies the top spot in terms of importance, and they perceive Trump as having a 27-point advantage in dealing with this issue. Conversely, Biden boasts a 19-point lead on healthcare, which comes next in terms of significance. However, Trump maintains double-digit leads on matters such as the overall economy, crime, taxes, immigration, and China. On the other hand, Biden holds a considerable 25-point advantage on the abortion issue, and a marginal lead on Social Security.

Observations on Biden's coalition

Pollsters highlighted certain vulnerabilities in Biden's coalition. Notably, black voters are more likely to be undecided compared to the general voter population, while Latinos support Biden with only a 9-point advantage over Trump. This stands in contrast to the AP Votecast poll, which suggested that Biden secured a 28-point lead among Latinos in the 2020 election. Additionally, Latinos are divided on who they believe would implement better policies for managing inflation, with a 12-point margin favoring Trump. However, they perceive Biden as more competent in healthcare matters, with a 24-point advantage.