Majority of Americans believe Trump guilty as trial nears end, but uncertain of jury's decision

As the trial of former president Donald Trump in New York City reaches its conclusion, public opinion remains divided on the verdict. According to a recent CBS News/YouGov survey conducted between May 14-21, 2024, with a nationally representative sample of 1,402 U.S. adult residents, the majority of Americans believe that Trump is guilty of the crime he has been charged with in this case. However, there is uncertainty about the potential decision of the jury following their deliberations next week.

Guilty or Not Guilty?

Fifty-six percent of the respondents, constituting a majority, indicated that Trump is "definitely" or "probably" guilty of the crime in question. The charges against him include falsifying business records to conceal a "hush money" payment and influence the 2016 election. The survey revealed a stark partisan divide in opinions, with nearly all Democrats believing in Trump's guilt, while about 80% of Republicans express the opposite view.

Uncertainty Prevails

Notably, opinions among Republicans are less definitive, as only half of them assert that Trump is "definitely" not guilty. The public's perception of the jury's decision is also split, with approximately half expecting a guilty verdict and the other half anticipating an acquittal. Additionally, there is widespread uncertainty regarding the jury's decision, with a higher proportion speculating that the jury will "probably" convict Trump rather than "definitely" finding him guilty.

Impact of Trial Awareness

About three-quarters of Americans reported being at least somewhat informed about the trial, while those who claimed to be extensively aware of the proceedings displayed more polarized views. Individuals with substantial knowledge of the trial were also more likely to identify as strong partisans and exhibit heightened confidence in their beliefs regarding Trump's guilt or innocence. This heightened polarization may potentially diminish the impact of the jury's verdict on public opinion.

Survey Methodology

The CBS News/YouGov survey utilized a nationally representative sample of 1,402 U.S. adult residents and incorporated an oversample in certain states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The sample was weighted based on gender, age, race, and education, in alignment with the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for the survey is ±4.4 points.