Remnant Moisture from Hurricane Beryl to Impact Ontario and Quebec This Week

After Beryl made its third and final landfall as a Category 1 hurricane early Monday morning near Matagorda, Texas, the remnant moisture associated with the once powerful storm will make its way north of the border this week.

Impact of Beryl's Remnants

Beryl began to quickly weaken as it moved inland on Monday while still bringing significant rainfall and flooding to Texas, resulting in at least two deaths.

On Tuesday, only a low-pressure system will remain of the historic storm. By the time the low reaches the Mississippi Valley, an upper-level trough in the atmosphere over the central states will capture and fling the moisture towards southern Ontario and Quebec.

Arrival in Southern Ontario and Quebec

The earliest we can expect this moisture-packed low to reach the provinces is on Tuesday overnight, then ramping up Wednesday morning. Eastern Ontario and Quebec can expect to see rainfall by early Wednesday afternoon. It will file in from the south, through the Ohio Valley, over Lake Erie, and move northward in waves through Thursday.

At this time, it's too soon to give precise rainfall totals for the provinces, but localized forecasts are expected to exceed 50 mm through Thursday. There is also a degree of uncertainty as to where the most rainfall will be.

Risks in Ontario and Quebec

While driven by an upper-level trough, at the surface, the system will send a warm front through southern Ontario and Quebec. Around this front is where we expect to see the heaviest rain fall, as well as the risk of thunderstorms. Currently, computer models are suggesting the 401 corridor may be the subject to the highest totals, but this could change leading up to the event.

Assurance Against Hurricane-Force Impact

It can be easy to think that southern Ontario and Quebec is going to be struck by a hurricane-force storm when we say that the remnants of Beryl will reach the provinces. We can assure you, though, that is not the case. By the time this system reaches southern Ontario and Quebec, it won't even be a tropical depression by then.

What we will see is a tropical moisture-laden low-pressure system. The main risks presently with this system in Ontario and Quebec will be heavy downpours, the risk of thunderstorms, and localized flooding. The localized flooding from heavy downpours could also cause a significant amount of storm water runoff to make its way into Lake Ontario, raising the lake's pollution levels.

This isn't the first time Ontario and Quebec has felt the lingering impacts of a tropical system. The hurricane database has 50 cases of remnant storms or tropical depressions moving across southern Ontario since 1876, with only seven of them landfalling in Texas.

Recent Examples

Recent instances include Tropical Storm Cristobal in 2020, Alberto in May 2018, Hurricane Isabel in September 2003, and Hurricane Fran in September 1996. These storms all left their mark on the regions, showcasing the historical recurrence of such events.