Satellite Imagery Suggests Failed Russian ICBM Test at Plesetsk Cosmodrome Sparks Concerns

Recent satellite observations suggest a failed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test may have taken place in Russia within the past few days involving the Sarmat ICBM, also referred to as Satan II. A satellite image analyzed by CBS News on September 21 reveals a significant crater and traces of a possible explosion on a launchpad at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia. The crater spans approximately 200 feet in width and is accompanied by dark rubble and other debris, indicating a substantial fire or explosion at the site.

Continuing Fires and Launch Details

It has been reported that several trucks were present at the site, with fires persisting in the trees near the launchpad site on Saturday, as noted by George Barros, the Institute for the Study of War's Russia team lead. Pavel Podvig, the director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project, an arms control and nuclear weapons analysis blog, suggested that the launch likely occurred on September 19. Furthermore, a Notice to Air Missions or NOTAM notification for pilots in the vicinity was subsequently canceled on the same day. Podvig speculated that the explosion might have transpired during the defueling of the missile, indicating the possibility that the missile may have "exploded in the silo."

Geographic Context and Official Responses

The Plesetsk Cosmodrome is situated approximately 500 miles north of Moscow and 250 miles east of the Russian border with Finland. A spokesperson from the U.S. Defense Department acknowledged the press reports regarding Russia's ICBM launch, directing inquiries to the Russian Ministry of Defence for further information on the incident. On September 23, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refrained from commenting on the alleged explosion, stating, "We do not have any information on this matter."

Background on the Sarmat ICBM

This incident marks the latest test of Russia's Sarmat ICBM since its introduction into service in 2021. The last launch occurred in February 2023, two days before President Biden's visit to Kyiv, Ukraine. According to U.S. officials, the test was unsuccessful. The Sarmat is categorized as a "heavy" ICBM, engineered to reach targets approximately 11,000 miles away and capable of accommodating a payload of up to 10 tons, as per the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Missile Defense Project.

Nuclear Arms Pact and Global Implications

In February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin disclosed the country's suspension of its participation in the New START Treaty, a nuclear arms pact, stating that Russia would resume nuclear weapons tests if the U.S. did. In response, the U.S. conducted two Minuteman III ICBM test launches in 2023, one in June and the other in September. Tom Karako, the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Missile Defense Project, characterized the latest Sarmat test as "nuclear saber rattling," indicating a strategic move amidst ongoing global nuclear dynamics.

Future Testing Plans and Recent Developments

Sergei Karakayev, the commander of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, conveyed intentions to conduct seven ICBM tests in 2024. In a broader context, reports from the independent news outlet Sirena indicate that Russia has undertaken six failed tests of nuclear weaponry since June, encompassing its Poseidon torpedo and Bulava submarine-launched missile. These developments underscore the evolving landscape of global nuclear capabilities and the imperative for continued vigilance on the international stage.