Syrian Rebels Make Strides in Homs, Alarming Threat to Assad’s 24-Year Rule

The conflict in Syria has intensified as rebels engage in fierce battles with government forces for control of the crucial city of Homs. The situation has grown increasingly precarious, with rebels making significant advancements toward the capital, Damascus. As the front lines continue to collapse across the country, President Bashar al-Assad's 24-year reign hangs in the balance.

Syrian rebels battle for Homs and advance on Damascus

Since the rebels' recent sweep into Aleppo just a week ago, government defenses have rapidly deteriorated. Insurgents have swiftly seized control of major cities and are mounting uprisings in areas where the rebellion had previously seemed dormant. The simultaneous threats to the strategically vital cities of Homs and the capital, Damascus, pose an existential challenge to Assad's decades-long grip on power in Syria and the continued influence of his key regional ally, Iran.

Reports from a Homs resident, as well as army and rebel sources, reveal that the insurgents have breached government defenses from the north and east of the city. A rebel commander reported gaining control of an army camp and villages on the outskirts of Homs. While state television maintains that the insurgents have not penetrated the city, it acknowledges their presence on the outskirts where the military is retaliating with artillery and drones.

Advancements Near the Capital

The insurgents have achieved remarkable progress, seizing almost the entire southwest within 24 hours and advancing to within 30 kilometers (20 miles) of Damascus. This swift advancement has prompted a shift in the balance of power, with government forces retreating. In a reflection of the escalating tensions, protests erupted in several Damascus suburbs, with demonstrators tearing down posters of Assad and dismantling a statue of his father, former President Hafez al-Assad. Notably, some of the protesters were reportedly joined by army soldiers who had deserted and changed into civilian clothes.

Despite the protests, the state news agency asserts that Assad remains in Damascus. The military claims to be reinforcing its presence around the capital and south, indicating a determination to maintain control.

Regional Implications and International Reactions

The rapid developments in Syria have sent shockwaves through Arab capitals and raised concerns of a new wave of regional instability. The Syrian civil war, which erupted in 2011 as an uprising against Assad's rule, has drawn in significant external powers, provided fertile ground for extremist militants, and resulted in millions of refugees fleeing to neighboring states.

Assad has long relied on allies to suppress the rebels, with Russian bombing campaigns and Iranian support through allied forces such as Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iraqi militia. However, the shifting geopolitical landscape has complicated this support. Russia's focus on the war in Ukraine since 2022 and Hezbollah's heavy losses in its conflict with Israel have constrained their ability to bolster Assad's position.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump expressed a non-interventionist stance, suggesting that the U.S. should "let it play out." Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, and Turkey, a primary backer of the rebels, convened to discuss Syria's territorial integrity and the need to restart a political process. However, concrete agreements or steps in this regard remain elusive amid the rapidly evolving situation in Syria.

Military Shifts and Potential Escalation

Russia's presence in Syria, with its naval base and airbase, has been instrumental in supporting Assad and extending its influence in the Mediterranean and Africa. While Moscow has been conducting intense air strikes in support of the government forces, the feasibility, and extent of an escalation in its military campaign remains uncertain.

Iran has signaled a willingness to consider sending additional forces to Syria, but such actions would likely depend on the presence of Hezbollah and Iraqi militias. Any substantial deployment would pose risks of retaliation, particularly from Israeli airstrikes. The readiness of Iran-backed Iraqi militia to deploy to Syria reflects the gravity of the situation, albeit with cautious deliberation due to Iraq's non-interventionist stance in the conflict.