The truth behind the claim of a tenfold increase in illegal immigration to the US between 2017 and 2023

A claim has been circulating that alleges illegal immigration into the U.S. grew tenfold between 2017 and 2023. However, a thorough analysis of the data reveals that the information has been misrepresented and exaggerated. The data shared on social media mixed real statistics from two different data sets, resulting in a distorted portrayal of the actual increase in illegal immigration during that time period. Let's delve into the facts and set the record straight.

Mixture rating

The claim of a tenfold increase in illegal immigration between 2017 and 2023 has been rated as a mixture of truth and falsehood. While there was a significant increase in border encounters with migrants attempting to enter the United States during this period, the actual growth was approximately six times, not tenfold.

The claim originated from a post on social media that gained significant traction, garnering over 24 million views and being widely circulated by users. The post presented data allegedly sourced from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), indicating a dramatic surge in illegal migration. The figures provided for each year seemed to support the assertion of a tenfold increase from 2017 to 2023.

Data discrepancy

Upon closer scrutiny, it became evident that the numbers for the initial four years were drawn from a distinct data set compared to those for the subsequent four years, leading to a skewed representation of the overall growth in illegal immigration. The actual increase from fiscal year 2017 to 2023 stood at around six times, with the number of encounters rising from 526,901 to 3,201,144.

Dissecting the numbers

It is crucial to note that the numbers for the years 2017 through 2020 represented the encounters reported solely by U.S. Border Patrol. In contrast, the figures for 2021 through 2024 encompassed the total encounters reported by both the Border Patrol and the Office of Field Operations, two agencies under CBP. This distinction underscores the need for precision when interpreting immigration statistics to avoid misinterpretation and misinformation.

Fiscal year representation

Additionally, the post's inclusion of "2024 so far" and the data for the other years referred to CBP's fiscal year, which commences on October 1 of the preceding calendar year. This clarifies the timeframe and context within which the figures were presented, shedding light on the data's temporal reference point.

Prior misinformation

The individual behind the viral post has been associated with previous instances of disseminating misinformation. An earlier claim regarding Costco selling "doomsday" food and supplies was debunked, highlighting the user's history of propagating false information.

Verification sources

For further validation, official sources including the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and fact-checking platforms such as Snopes provided critical insights and context to verify the accuracy of the immigration data.

While there has indeed been a significant increase in border encounters with migrants attempting to enter the U.S. in recent years, the claim of a tenfold surge in illegal immigration between 2017 and 2023 does not align with the verified data. It is imperative to critically evaluate and verify information before accepting and circulating sensationalized claims, particularly in the realm of immigration statistics.

By dissecting the data and providing a factual analysis, a clearer understanding of the actual trends in illegal immigration to the U.S. emerges, dispelling the misconceptions propagated by the viral claim.