Tropical Cyclone Nine Strengthens, Shifts Path toward Eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend Area

The National Hurricane Center has reported that the Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is gaining momentum in its journey towards the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The storm's trajectory has been adjusted, now directing its path towards the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area. This shift has prompted the issuance of hurricane and tropical storm watches across the Gulf Coast of Florida, spanning from the Walton County line to the Dry Tortugas.

In preparation for the storm, Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 counties, anticipating the possibility of Category 3 Hurricane Helene upon its potential landfall on Thursday. Residents in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend regions are urged to closely monitor the storm's progression and ensure their hurricane preparations are promptly addressed.

Update on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine

The Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine has started to gather speed, now moving north-northwest at approximately 9 mph, though limited development has been observed thus far. Strengthening is anticipated to continue over the coming days as the storm approaches the Gulf of Mexico, which is expected to fuel rapid intensification. The storm's path has shifted towards the east, targeting Florida's Big Bend and the eastern Panhandle area. Consequently, hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued across a significant portion of Florida's Gulf and western coasts.

Despite potential confusion regarding a perceived lull in development, AccuWeather maintains projections of landfall as a Category 3 hurricane.

Current Location of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine

The system is currently advancing north at 9 mph. It is expected to transition to a northwestward direction on Tuesday and Tuesday night, before shifting towards a faster northward or north-northeast trajectory over the following days. Presently, Tropical Cyclone Nine is situated approximately 150 miles west of Grand Cayman, and 205 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba, with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph and a present movement of northwest at 9 mph.

Expected Impacts of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine

Rainfall from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is projected to reach total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with isolated totals around 12 inches. The eastern Yucatan Peninsula may experience 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals exceeding 6 inches, raising the risk of thick flooding.

In the Southeastern U.S., total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches are anticipated, potentially leading to locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

The combined impact of a dangerous storm surge and high tide may result in flooding in normally dry areas near the coast, with the following potential peak surge heights above ground level in indicated areas:

• Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka: 10-15 ft
• Chassahowitzka to Anclote River: 6-10 ft
• Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River: 5-10 ft
• Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key: 5-8 ft
• Tampa Bay: 5-8 ft
• Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood: 4-7 ft
• Englewood to Bonita Beach: 3-5 ft
• Charlotte Harbor: 3-5 ft

Additionally, storm surge could raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, as well as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Potential Wind and Surf Conditions

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday, while such conditions could extend to the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today, with the possibility of such conditions in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida Panhandle.

Swells generated by the system are likely to affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico over the next couple of days. These swells are expected to spread northward towards the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Residents are advised to consult local weather office products for updates.