Tropical Storm Rafael Strengthens, Poised to Become Hurricane, Targeting Caribbean and U.S. Coast

A disturbance in the Caribbean transformed into Tropical Storm Rafael on the afternoon of Monday. Forecasts indicate that the storm is likely to evolve into a hurricane by Tuesday. Initially identified as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, Rafael came into existence on Sunday. By Monday at 4 p.m. ET, its location was approximately 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, boasting maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, and heading north at a pace of 9 mph, as per the reports from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Rafael's Status

Rafael marks the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and is poised to become the 11th hurricane if it continues to strengthen, which is anticipated. The hurricane season extends until November 30, with peak activity typically occurring around September 10. The storm system is projected to approach the United States later in the week, according to the predictions from the hurricane center. Consequently, a tropical storm watch was issued on Monday afternoon for the lower and middle Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas. Heavy rainfall could potentially impact parts of Florida and nearby regions in the Southeast by mid to late week. However, NHC forecasters cautioned that it is still premature to make predictions regarding the effects on the Gulf Coast.

Warnings and Forecasts

A hurricane warning has been declared for the Cayman Islands, accompanied by a tropical storm warning in effect for Jamaica. The government of Cuba has issued a hurricane watch for several provinces while a tropical storm watch is in place for other areas. Forecasters anticipate that the weather system will move near Jamaica late on Monday, followed by its proximity to or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, at which point it may reach near or at hurricane intensity. The forecast also indicates that it will likely approach Cuba on Wednesday. NHC forecasters predicted a near 100% chance of the storm transitioning into a hurricane within the next 48 hours as early as Monday morning.

Expected Impact

Rafael is forecasted to deposit 3 to 6 inches of rain across a significant portion of the western Caribbean, with some areas potentially receiving up to 9 inches. The heaviest precipitation is anticipated to occur in Jamaica. Minor coastal flooding is a possibility in Jamaica on Monday evening, while the Cayman Islands are expected to experience a storm surge of up to 3 feet on Tuesday, according to the NHC. Flooding and mudslides could also pose a threat to certain regions in Jamaica and Cuba.

Hurricane Season Activity

This hurricane season has demonstrated a high level of activity. Parts of the Southeast are still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, which occurred two weeks apart in late September and early October. Forecasts had anticipated an exceptionally busy hurricane season, attributed in part to record-high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. Experts at Colorado State University, a reputable hurricane forecast center, had earlier this year predicted a 'hyperactive season.' The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projected 8 to 13 hurricanes and 17 to 25 named storms, the highest forecast the agency had ever announced in its annual outlook issued in May.