Vladimir Putin's Strategy for Prolonging the War in Ukraine and Weakening Western Support

When the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, analysts predicted it might take as few as three days for Russian forces to capture Kyiv. Now, as the war enters its third year, Putin seems to be trying to turn that initial failure to his advantage, by biding his time and waiting for Western support to wither while Moscow maintains its steady military pressure along the front line. Putin has repeatedly signaled a desire to negotiate an end to the fighting but warned that Russia will hold onto its gains.

Russian Strategy and Optimism

Some recent developments have fed the Kremlin’s optimism, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to dismiss his popular military chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, disappointed many in the country and worried its Western allies. Amid the fierce battles in the east, Russian forces captured the eastern stronghold of Avdiivka over the weekend after a fierce battle in which Ukrainian forces reported an increasingly desperate shortage of munitions. The seizure set the stage for a potential Russian push deeper into Ukraine-held territory.

Russian Military Tactics and Potential

Amid the fierce battles in the east, Russia also has sought to cripple Ukraine’s defense industries, using long-range cruise and ballistic missiles as well as Iranian-made Shahed drones to saturate and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses that are experiencing a growing shortage of munitions. Retired Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, the former chief of the military’s General Staff, admitted that Ukrainian air defenses has effectively barred Russian warplanes from Ukrainian airspace and often make it risky for them to operate even over Russian-controlled territory. Putin, who is all but certain to win another six-year term in the March 15-17 presidential election, has sought to consolidate public support by casting the conflict as a fight against the expansionist West that has armed Ukraine in a bid to weaken Russia.

Despite challenges, Russia’s vast economic and military potential gives Putin the ability for a protracted war. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says the conflict has taken longer than expected because of Western intervention. "The special military operation may last for somewhat longer, but this can’t change the course of things," he said.