China's Pet Population Set to Surpass Young Children by 2030, Goldman Sachs Reports

According to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, China's pet population is projected to grow significantly over the next decade, potentially outnumbering the country's young children by almost double. This trend is a result of young Chinese adults' decreasing interest in starting families, leading to a projected urban pet population exceeding 70 million by 2030, while the number of children four and under is expected to decline to fewer than 40 million.

Shifting Demographics and Changing Attitudes

The report cites data from the National Bureau of Statistics to support its predictions. Just six years ago, in 2017, the situation was reversed, with around 90 million children aged four and under compared to an urban pet population of approximately 40 million. This significant shift in demographics demonstrates a changing attitude towards family planning and pet ownership among the younger generation in China.

Valerie Zhou, an equity analyst at Goldman Sachs, stated in the report, "We expect to see stronger momentum in pet ownership amid a relatively weaker birth rate outlook and higher incremental household pet penetration from the younger generation." This suggests that the younger generation in China is increasingly opting for pets as companions instead of having children, contributing to the projected growth in pet ownership.

Declining Birth Rate and Changing Perspectives

The report highlights that new births in China are expected to decline at an average rate of 4.2% until 2030, primarily due to a decrease in the population of women aged 20 to 35 years and the younger generation's reluctance to have children. As of 2023, individuals aged 23 to 33 years accounted for nearly half of pet owners in China, according to the China Pet Industry White Paper. This trend indicates a notable shift in priorities among young Chinese adults, with a preference for pet ownership over raising children.

Goldman Sachs anticipates significant growth in China's pet food market, projecting it to become a $12 billion industry by 2030. Moreover, the report anticipates a rise in cat ownership surpassing that of dogs, as cats typically require less space and resources for care and companionship. This shift in pet ownership preferences further reflects the changing lifestyles and choices of the younger generation in China.

Global Context and Declining Birth Rates

The trend of declining birth rates and increasing pet ownership is not limited to China. Across the globe, women are choosing to have fewer children, leading to a projected peak in world population this century amidst declining birth rates in some of the largest countries. China's population, for instance, has fallen for the second consecutive year in 2023, dropping by 2.08 million from the previous year to reach 1.41 billion people.

While there was a 12.4% increase in new marriages in China in 2023 compared to the previous year, it is noteworthy that over half of the population between the ages of 25 and 29 remains unmarried, with late marriages becoming increasingly common. This shifting societal landscape poses further challenges to traditional notions of family structure and child-rearing.

The report also draws on data from Japan, where the pet population, estimated at around 20 million, is nearly four times larger than the number of children aged four and under as of 2022.

The projections by Goldman Sachs paint a compelling picture of the changing dynamics of family planning and pet ownership in China. The anticipated surge in pet ownership and the decline in the number of young children indicate a significant shift in societal perspectives and priorities, particularly among the younger generation. These trends reflect broader global patterns of declining birth rates and increasing pet ownership, reshaping the landscape of family structures and companionship preferences in contemporary society.