Global HIV Deaths Could Soar as Foreign Aid Faces Cuts

Proposed cuts to global foreign aid programs, including slashing HIV/AIDS initiatives in the United States, could have catastrophic consequences, leading to millions of additional HIV infections and high rates of HIV-related deaths, according to a new study published in The Lancet HIV journal.

Projected Impact on Global HIV Landscape

The modeling study estimates that by 2030, there could be between 4.4 million and 10.8 million additional new HIV infections in low- and middle-income countries, along with 770,000 to 2.9 million HIV-related deaths among children and adults. These grim projections highlight the potentially catastrophic consequences of reduced foreign aid funding for HIV resources.

Countries at Risk

The study analyzed the impact on 26 countries that rely on foreign aid for HIV resources, including Albania, Cambodia, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Sri Lanka. The authors underscored the crucial role of international funding in reducing HIV transmissions and deaths.

The Role of Donor Nations

The United States, U.K., France, Germany and the Netherlands provide over 90% of international HIV funding, with the U.S. being the largest contributor, committing $5.71 billion in 2023. However, donor nations have announced reductions in aid ranging from 8% to 70% between 2025 and 2026, raising concerns about the potential undoing of decades of progress in HIV prevention and treatment.

The Impact of U.S. Funding Cuts

Debra ten Brink, co-lead study author from the Burnet Institute in Australia, emphasized that the current cuts to PEPFAR and USAID-supported programs have disrupted access to crucial HIV services, including antiretroviral therapy and testing. She cautioned that ongoing disruptions could undo decades of progress and emphasized the need for sustainable financing to prevent a resurgence of the HIV epidemic.

The Significance of PEPFAR

PEPFAR, launched in 2003 under President George W. Bush, represents the largest commitment by any nation to address a single disease in history. The program has invested over $100 billion in the global HIV/AIDS response and has reportedly saved the lives of 26 million people since its inception. However, its funding has been impacted by a pause on foreign aid ordered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier this year.