Harris Leads Trump Among Latino Voters But Support Declines to Lowest Level in Four Cycles

New data from an NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll indicates a shifting landscape in the preferences of Latino voters, revealing a decrease in support for Democrats compared to previous election cycles. Although Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, remains ahead of former President Donald Trump among Latino voters, the advantage has dwindled to the lowest level observed among Democratic candidates in the past four presidential elections.

The poll shows that Harris has 54% support from registered Latino voters, while Trump garners 40%, with 6% uncertain or unwilling to vote. The margin of error in the poll is ±3.1 percentage points. While Harris' 14-point lead improves upon President Joe Biden's support, it falls short compared to the advantages Democratic candidates held in previous election cycles. In 2012, Democrats held a 39-point advantage, in 2016 it was 50 points, and in 2020 it stood at 36 points, according to NBC's merged polling data.

Shifts in Latino Support

Support among Latino voters for Democrats has also waned in congressional preference, with 54% favoring a Democratic-controlled Congress compared to 42% opting for Republicans. This marks a notable decline from previous election cycles, illustrating a broader shift in political affiliations. The shifting landscape reflects evolving concerns among Latino voters, particularly regarding the economy and the increasing cost of living, which have emerged as top priorities.

Notable split on immigration priorities

The poll also sheds light on the diversity within the Latino voting demographic, highlighting differing priorities within immigration issues. Latino voters display a notable split between those advocating for a pathway to citizenship for undocumented individuals and those prioritizing border enforcement. This divergence emphasizes the nuanced perspectives within the Latino community and reflects a broader trend of varying opinions on key political issues.

Shifts in support based on demographic factors

Examining support for Harris and Trump among different demographic groups reveals notable shifts. The poll indicates a diminishing lead for Harris among young Hispanic voters aged 18 to 34, who now show 51% support for Harris compared to 41% for Trump, a significant decrease from Biden's 44-point lead in 2020. Additionally, Trump is gaining ground among Latino men, particularly those under 50 and those without college degrees, while Harris maintains strong support from Latinas over 50 and Hispanic women with college degrees.

The poll underscores the evolving dynamics within the Latino voting block, with shifting alliances based on gender, education, and age. The diverse perspectives within the community highlight the complexity of political affiliations and the importance of addressing nuanced concerns to effectively engage Latino voters.