Historian Lichtman Hints at Kamala Harris' 2024 Presidential Election Chances Over Trump

Allan J. Lichtman, a historian at American University known for his accurate predictions of U.S. elections, has been cautious about predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential race. However, he hinted that Democratic candidate Kamal Harris might have the best chances of winning against Donald Trump. Lichtman uses a system of 13 keys to predict elections, which he believes is more reliable than polls. According to him, the Democratic Party would need to face significant challenges in order to lose the election at present. 

Lichtman's prediction system involves answering 13 questions with a true or false response, with the incumbent party losing the White House if they receive six false answers. He has accurately predicted nine out of the last 10 elections and believes he was right in all 10, with the exception of the atypical 2000 election. The keys include factors such as the presence of an incumbent president, the strength of third-party candidates, and the state of the economy. According to Lichtman, the Democrats are currently down in three keys, but it remains to be seen how the election will unfold.

Lichtman's Grand Perspective

Lichtman expressed his perspective on predicting the election, stating, "Right now the Democrats are down in only three keys" of the six that would be needed for them to lose the election."

When questioned about Trumps charisma, Lichtman clarified that Trumps appeal does not meet the criteria of the charisma key, as he only appeals to a narrow base. Lichtman disregards the significance of polls, considering them to be merely a reflection of the present and not a reliable indicator of the Election Day outcome. He argues that polls can underestimate both pro-Trump and pro-Democratic support and recognizes that various factors, such as people lying or changing their minds, can affect the accuracy of polls.