NFL running renaissance reshapes the game in 2024

As we look back to the turn of the millennium, the year 2000 represented a distinct era in the world of professional football. The sounds of home telephones and the flickering of CDs were still the norm, while the rap sensation Eminem was just beginning to make waves. Y2K concerns had faded, but one prevailing factor remained: bell cow running backs were still the undisputed stars of the NFL. Names like Eddie George, Mike Anderson, Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, Jerome Bettis, and Stephen Davis dominated the rushing leaderboard, epitomizing the strength and importance of the position.

Shifting Trends: The Decline of Bell-Cow Backs

However, the landscape of professional football was on the brink of transformation. The traditional reliance on bell cow running backs, who would shoulder the bulk of the rushing duties, was gradually giving way to a more diversified approach. In 2006, Larry Johnson became the last player to achieve the remarkable feat of 400 carries in a single season. As the timeshare became the norm, the era of the 400-carry bell-cow back seemed destined for the history books.

Fast forward to 2024, and while the running back position may no longer hold the same monolithic status it once did, a resurgence of power backs has emerged. The numbers are telling a different story; overall, running the ball is staging a comeback, with passing attempts witnessing a marked decline.

Rushing Data: A Resurgence

The statistics reveal a resurgence in the ground game, with teams averaging 119.5 rushing yards per game in the current season. This figure marks the second-highest rate through Week 3 in the past 35 years. Furthermore, the league-wide yards per rush sit at 4.43, the highest at this juncture since 1958, when Jim Brown secured his second of an unprecedented eight rushing titles. Moreover, teams have elevated their rushing attempts to over 44% of their total plays, the highest rate through Week 3 since 2008. Notably, the first down rush rate has surged to 54%, the highest since 1998. These statistics underscore a clear trend: the ground game is once again taking center stage.

The Evolution of Value: Rushing Efficiency

While the efficiency of rushing attempts has seen improvement, it's important to note that rush EPA (Expected Points Added) remains a net negative. However, there is a positive trajectory, with the rate steadily increasing to -0.04 this season, the highest rate through Week 3 since 2008. The driving force behind this

Emerging Heavyweights: A Return of the Power Backs

The resurgence of the power back is evident in the performances of familiar names such as Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor. These athletes, once the poster children of power football, have adapted to the changing dynamics of the game while maintaining their ferocity and effectiveness. Additionally, J.K. Dobbins' revival with the Chargers and strong showing from Josh Jacobs in Green Bay signify a shift towards a more robust rushing attack. Notably, the average weight of the top 10 rushing leaders is 224 pounds, marking a significant increase from the previous season and indicating a trend towards heavier, more physically imposing backs.

Tackling Trends and Defensive Adjustments

Defensive strategies have also evolved, with defenses increasingly opting for two-high safety coverages and light boxes. The data shows a marked rise in these defensive tendencies, indicating a shift in how teams are approaching the running game. The weight of offensive linemen has reached an all-time high, while defenders in the box are lighter than they have been in over a decade. This shift in physique is likely contributing to the resurgence of the rushing attack, creating favorable matchups for offenses.

Another factor playing into the resurgence of the ground game is the impact of missed tackles. With a staggering 899 missed tackles recorded this season, the highest through Week 3 on record, the lack of effective tackling has undoubtedly bolstered the running game. This highlights the importance of physicality and execution in both offensive and defensive units on the field.

Shifting Dynamics: The Balance of Power

Despite the positive trends for the running game, it's essential to note that the gap in efficiency between passing and rushing attempts persists. The Expected Points Added for throws stands at 0.11, while rushing carries a -0.04 value for this season. While the running game has made strides, it still faces an uphill battle in terms of overall efficiency compared to the passing game.